Yes sports fans it is now February. It is unarguably that one dreadful month of the year which we try to recover from football and look to avoid Sunday “time-spending” with the wife. So with no football and the winter sports in the middle of long seasons, what is a man to do?
Start day-dreaming about the sounds of spring and get that prep nailed down for another season of fantasy baseball. While yes it’s still a dream (over a month from opening day), there is no time table for when the prep starts. Especially the case for those in keeper/dynasty leagues running year round.
Each season fantasy baseball enthusiasts do their best general manager impression, looking for values up and down the board. Remember though it’s just as important to avoid certain guys while coveting others.
The word bust in fantasy circles spreads like a wildfire. Let’s first realize what it means. When some hear the bust tag being used, they automatically think of a terrible player. Not true. Bust must be recognized in concert with the word value. A player not performing to his actual draft value is a bust, and a player that will ruin your team from the very start.
A bust player will ruin summers.
Such a dirty word should be used sparingly. So let’s look at the top five, um, players who will under-perform to their average draft position (with a focus on the early rounds). Using average draft positions provided by Mock Draft Central.
Chris Davis, 1B, Baltimore Orioles (ADP: 5.19)
--Please stand up if you had Chris Davis leading the majors in HR’s with 53 and RBI’s with 138. In 2014 he’s now a guaranteed fantasy star after being an absolute steal of a pick in 2013. Come on now fellow fantasy geeks, this one is easy. The brave soul who will take Davis must pray last year was the start of a stud career. First Round Picks are the building blocks of a team and they must be proven commodities. A major reason for his output last season is due to a remarkable rate from 2012 (6.6 percent) to 2013 (10.7%), according to Fan Graphs. Davis has another year to prove first round status and his new found patience at the plate. So now that you didn’t stand up…..sit back, relax, eat some popcorn and enjoy your fantasy team without the headache of Chris Davis.
Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies (ADP: 27.27)
--Injuries, Injuries and more Injuries. It was a minor miracle to realize that this guy was still sniffing around the first round last season. Position scarcity cannot be more important than durability. With only 126 games played last year, it marks one of his more durable seasons, which is telling. With great talent and power potential at the position, he should be looked at more in the fourth or fifth round as a wild card.
Alex Rios, OF, Chicago White Sox (ADP: 31.77)
--Consistency and durability is a major theme in fantasy baseball. In 2013 Alex Rios seems to have finally broken his inconsistencies finishing the ninth best hitter in a standard scoring format. For the second straight year he has been a major contributor in fantasy with 18 HR, 81 RBI, .277 BA and a remarkable 42 SB at the age of 32. Showing major promise as a youngster in Toronto, he’s done just enough to tease us and then disappoint. Now showing durability and consistency, he’s got us right where he wants us, believing in him.
Carlos Gomez, OF, Milwaukee Brewers (ADP: 31.92)
--The 28 year old outfielder has put together back to back solid seasons. The owners who drafted him benefited greatly for where he was going. However this season he’s sitting with an ADP that places him in the third round of a 12 team league. Injuries have plagued Gomez in the past as he’s only broken 100 games played two of the last four seasons. He will be drafted for descent pop and a solid foundation for steals, but pass on him and wait until the later rounds for speedster.
David Ortiz, DH, Boston Red Sox (ADP: 52.19)
--While Alex Rodriguez was the black cloud hanging over baseball during the fall of 2013, David Ortiz starred as the prince of baseball. The lasting image of him carrying his team through the fall will be engraved in many minds come this spring. Ortiz is currently projected for a late fourth round grab and a “buyer-beware” tag. The man is 38 years old and doesn’t play a position. While he went 30, 103 and .308 last season, you must stay away this early in the draft as the end of a career will come eventually.
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